*********************************************************
*** The President in the Partisan Congressional Arena ***
***         Matthew Lebo and Andrew O'Geen            ***
***                JOP 73(3) 2011                     ***
*********************************************************
** Email matthew.lebo@stonybrook.edu with questions
**
** This file will load and run all of the analyses that appear in the paper, but
** the data are in two separate files.  If both files are placed in the same path,
** the program can be run by RATS without interruption.



******************************************************************
** Load Data and Procedure Files for Analyses in Tables 1 and 2 **
******************************************************************

calender 1953 1 1
allocate 54
open data PrezSuccess.xls
data(format=xls,org=columns) /year congress totalper houseper senateper senopp houseopp firstyear pres presvar $
meanrep meandem meanind varrep vardem varind polar presparty presvote preshigh preslow outapprov midterm tenure $
MAJSIZ_1 DEMSIZE DEMMAJ_1 MAJCOH_1 MINCOH_1 VOTES1 MAJCOH_2 MINCOH_2 VOTES2 DEMCO1 DEMCO2 REPCO1 REPCO2 DEMSN1V $
DEMSN1M DEMSN1SOLD DEMSN2V DEMSN2M DEMSN2SOLD REPSN1V REPSN1M REPSN1SOLD REPSN2V REPSN2M REPSN2SOLD MAJLEADN1 $
MINLEADN1 DEMLEADN1 REPLEADN1 DLEADMED RLEADMED MEDMEDN1OLD MEDMEDN2OLD PREZN1 PREZN2 DEMPREZ HMAJSIZ_1 HDEMSIZE $
HDEMMAJ_1 HMAJCOH_1 HMINCOH_1 HVOTES1 HMAJCOH_2 HMINCOH_2 HVOTES2 HDEMCO1 HDEMCO2 HDEMCO3 HREPCO1 HREPCO2 HREPCO3 $
HDEMSN1V HDEMSN1M HDEMSN1SOLD HDEMSN2V HDEMSN2M HDEMSN2SOLD HREPSN1V HREPSN1M HREPSN1SOLD HREPSN2V HREPSN2M HREPSN2SOLD $
HMAJLEADN1 HMINLEADN1 HSPEAKN1 HDEMLEADN1 HREPLEADN1 HDLEADMED HRLEADMED HMEDMEDN1OLD HMEDMEDN2OLD smedmedada sdemsadas $
srepsadas hmedmedada hdemsadas hrepsadas d1lopsd d2lopsd r1lopsd r2lopsd lop1medmed lop2medmed hdem_dw1mean $
hdem_dw2mean hdem_dw1median hdem_dw2median hdemsn1s hdemsn2s hdem_mcs hwr_dw1mean hwr_dw2mean hwr_dw1median $
hwr_dw2median hrepsn1s hrepsn2s hwr_mcs hmedmedn1 hmedmedn2 sdem_dw1mean sdem_dw2mean sdem_dw1median sdem_dw2median $
demsn1s demsn2s sdem_mcs swr_dw1mean swr_dw2mean swr_dw1median swr_dw2median repsn1s repsn2s swr_mcs medmedn1 medmedn2 $
majn1s majn2s minn1s minn2s hmajn1s hmajn2s hminn1s hminn2s dem_uni rep_uni dem_div rep_div hprezsize hprezpartyco $
hprezpartymed prezlead_hmaj prezlead_hmin prez_speak hprezpartyn1s h_cpg united hprezpartycoXunited chambermedn1 $
hprez_maj hprez_party hprez_chamber hmajsiz_1Xunited cpgXunited cpg2 houtpartyco inpartyapp demco1_lag demsize_lag $
midterm2 midterm_demprez midterm_gopprez demprez2 president_lag demsuccess repsuccess prez_maj dwdist_eucl dwdist_abs $
csdist_eucl csdist_abs csabs_speak cseucl_speak rud_success conflict dwdist_med

source rgser.src
source fif.src

*************************************
** Transform Non-Stationary Series **
*************************************

*** Difference Variables in Tables 1 and 2

diff houseper / houseperd
diff hprezpartyco / hprezpartycod
diff hprezsize / hprezsized
diff cpg2 / cpg2d
diff prezlead_hmaj / prezlead_hmajd
diff prez_maj / prez_majd
diff csabs_speak / csabs_speakd
diff dwdist_med / dwdist_medd
diff conflict / conflictd
diff pres / presd
diff inpartyapp / inpartyappd
diff outapprov / outapprovd
diff meanind / meanindd
diff presvar / presvard
diff varind / varindd
diff polar / polard

*** Estimate D and Fractionally Difference Variables in Tables 1 and 2

@rgser houseperd
@fif(d=-.45) houseperd / houseperdf
@rgser hprezpartycod
@fif(d=-.34) hprezpartycod / hprezpartycodf
@rgser hprezsized
@fif(d=-.32) hprezsized / hprezsizedf
@rgser cpg2d
@fif(d=-.15) cpg2d / cpg2df
@rgser prezlead_hmajd
@fif(d=-.23) prezlead_hmajd / prezlead_hmajdf
@rgser csabs_speakd
@fif(d=-.21) csabs_speakd / csabs_speakdf
@rgser dwdist_medd
@fif(d=-.27) dwdist_medd / dwdist_meddf
@rgser conflictd
@fif(d=-.40) conflictd / conflictdf
@rgser presd
@fif(d=-.45) presd / presdf
@rgser inpartyappd
@fif(d=-.27) inpartyappd / inpartyappdf
@rgser outapprovd
@fif(d=-.46) outapprovd / outapprovdf
@rgser meanindd
@fif(d=-.45) meanindd / meanindf
@rgser presvard
@fif(d=-.73) presvard / presvardf
@rgser varind
@fif(d=-.69) varindd / varinddf
@rgser polard
@fif(d=-.13) polard / polardf

************************
** Models for Table 1 **
************************

***  Model 1
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1}

***  Model 2
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf

***  Model 3
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df csabs_speakdf prez_maj houseperdf{1}

***  Model 4
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df dwdist_meddf prez_maj houseperdf{1}

***  Model 5
linreg conflictdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1}

**************************
*** Models for Table 2 ***
**************************

***  Model 1
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} presdf

***  Model 2
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} inpartyappdf

***  Model 3
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} outapprovdf

***  Model 4
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} meanindf

***  Model 5
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} presvardf

***  Model 6
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} varinddf

***  Model 7
linreg houseperdf
# constant hprezpartycodf hprezsizedf cpg2df prezlead_hmajdf prez_maj houseperdf{1} polardf

***********************************************
** Clear Initial Data from Memory            **
** Load Data and Procedure Files for Table 3 **
***********************************************

end(reset)

calender(irregular)
allocate 110
open data Housecongresses2b.xls
data(format=xls,org=columns) / CG MAJSIZE DEMSIZE DEMMAJ MAJCO1 MINCO1 $
 VOTES1 MAJCO2 MINCO2 VOTES2 MAJCO3 MINCO3 VOTES3 DEMCO1 DEMCO2 DEMCO3 $
 REPCO1 REPCO2 REPCO3 DEMSN1V DEMSN1M DEMSN1S DEMSN2V DEMSN2M $
 DEMSN2S REPSN1V REPSN1M REPSN1S REPSN2V $
 REPSN2M REPSN2S MAJLEADN1 MINLEADN1 SPEAKN1 DEMLEADN1 REPLEADN1 $
 DLEADMED RLEADMED MEDMEDN1 MEDMEDN2 PREZN1 PREZN2 DEMPREZ DEMWIN $
 FWRPREZ1 DEMPREZ1 GOPMID DEMMID OPENPREZ DEMPREZ2 FWRPREZ2 LANDSLIDE $
 PRESWIN Pwindev PWINDEM VETOES OVERRIDES OVER2 PWINDEM2 lnpwindem newpwin $
 open_all open_dem open_rep quality_all atrisk_dem quality_reps approval


source(noecho) rgser.src
source(noecho) fif.src

set dummy104 = T== 104

*************************************
** Transform Non-Stationary Series **
*************************************

difference demwin / demwind
difference pwindem / pwindemd
difference quality_reps / quality_repsd
difference approval / approvald
difference demsize /demsized

@rgser demsized
@fif(d=-.45) demsized / demsizedf

************************
** Models for Table 3 **
************************

*** Model 1
linreg demsizedf 83 107 res1
# constant demwind{1} GOPMID{1} DEMMID{1} DEMPREZ1 dummy104 quality_repsd approvald{1}

*** Model 2
linreg demsizedf 85 107 res2
# constant pwindemd{1} GOPMID{1} DEMMID{1} DEMPREZ1 dummy104 quality_repsd approvald{1}

*** Model 3
linreg demsizedf 83 107 res3
# constant demwind{1} pwindemd{1} GOPMID{1} DEMMID{1} DEMPREZ1 quality_repsd dummy104

*** Encompassing Tests
set m1hat = demsizedf - res1
set m2hat = demsizedf - res2

linreg demsizedf 83 107
# constant demwind{1} GOPMID{1} DEMMID{1} DEMPREZ1 quality_repsd dummy104 m2hat

linreg demsizedf 85 107
# constant pwindemd{1} GOPMID{1} DEMMID{1} DEMPREZ1 quality_repsd dummy104 m1hat