WELCOME TO MY RESEARCH PAGE

Publications and Working Papers


My fields of interest are:

Labor Economics (Retirement, Labor Supply, Job Search, Education),

Applied Econometrics (Panel Data, Selection Models),

Industrial Organization (Automobile Recalls, Empirical Mechanism Design)

Health Economics (Health Measurement, Disability), Public Economics (Social Security, Disability Programs), Computational Economics (Dynamic Micro Modeling)


Publications in Refereed Journals

* "An Empirical Analysis of the Social Security Application, Appeal and Award Process"

Labour Economics 1999, vol. 6, 147-178.

With John Rust (Maryland), Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA), Hiu Man Chan (CRA) and Sofia Sheidvasser (Goldman Sachs).

Download in pdf


* " How Large is the Bias in Self-Reported Disability?"

I also provide below a longer and more comprehensive version than what it is published in the JAE. The published version also available below.

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2004, Vol. 19 (6), 649-670.

With John Rust (Maryland), Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA), Hiu Man Chan (CRA) and Sofia Cheidvasser (Goldman Sachs).

pdf file published in JAE

Download the longer working paper version in pdf


* "The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Informaton."

Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 87-3, 587-592. (2005)

With Deb Dwyer at SUNY-Stony Brook. Previously known as What to Expect when you are expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations Using Micro Data, but changed at the editor's request. We also provide a longer WP version with some more motivation and details.

Download the accepted version in pdf

Download the Working Paper version in pdf


* "Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis."

With Deb Dwyer at SUNY-Stony Brook. Download version in press. Labour Economics Vol. 13 (2), 191-218. (2006).

Download in pdf


*"Early Claiming of Social Security Benefits and Labor Supply Behavior of Older Americans."

with Frank Heiland at Florida State University. Applied Economics, Vol. 40-23, 2969-2985. (2008).

Download in pdf

If you have access to Routledge online journals you can get the electronic published version at

Link


* "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited."

With Deb Dwyer at SUNY-Stony Brook, Wayne-Roy Gayle at U. of Virginia, and Tom Muench at SUNY-Stony Brook. Version of November 23, 2006.

Empirical Economics (2008) Volume 34, Number 2, 381-416.

If you have access to Springer journals online you can get the electronic published version at

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0127-4

Download latest working paper version in pdf


*"The Educated Russian's Curse: Returns to Education in the Russian Federation during the 1990s"

With Sofia Cheidvasser. Version of Nov 10, 2006. I can send you the published article in pdf at your request.

LABOUR: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations., Vol. 21(1) 1-41, 2007. (Leading Article in the Issue)

Download in pdf


*"The Social Security Earnings Test and Work Incentives,""

with Frank Heiland at Florida State University.

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (JPAM), Vol. 26, No. 3, 527-555, (2007), plus appendix available in the online version.. Version of December 12, 2006.

Download in pdf


*"Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity."

with Huan Ni (Kennesaw State University), Journal of Health Economics , Volume 27, Issue 3, May 2008, Pages 564-584. Version of August 31, 2007. This version is the working paper version of the published piece, it is a bit longer (by 6 or 7 pages) since it includes two appendices and some more detailed references and discussions on a number of issues.

Download in pdf

If you have access to Elsevier journals online through ScienceDirect you can get the published version at

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.09.008


*"Discapacidad y empleo: reflexiones sobre el caso estadounidense."

Cuadernos Economics, ICE, forthcoming, 2008. Version of December 9, 2008. In Spanish. Download Corrected Proofs in pdf


*"An Empirical Study of the Effects of Social Security Reforms on Claiming Behavior and Benefits Receipt Using Public-Use Administrative Micro Data"

This paper has also circulated under the title: "Actuarial Fairness, Retirement Benefits, Self-Selection, and Individual Heterogeneity"

with Na Yin (Baruch College-CUNY). Published version, 2009. Social Security Bulletin. Vol. 69-3, 77-95.

Download in pdf

*"Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective."

Manuscript with Richard Disney (University of Nottingham) and and Sergi Jimenez-Martin (UPF). Version of Sept. 15, 2009. Economic Policy, Volume 25, Issue 63. Pages 483-536.

Download in pdf

*" Using the Health and Retirement Study to Analyze Housing Decisions, Housing Values, and Housing Prices "

Manuscript with Selcuk Eren (Levy Institute), Frank Heiland (Baruch College) and Sergi Jimenez-Martin (UPF). Cityscape, Vol. 12-2, 149-158 Cityscape is published three times a year by the Office of Policy Development and Research (PD&R) of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Download in pdf

Link to Cityscape


* " The Effects of Automobile Recalls on the Severity of Accidents."

With Yong-Kyun Bae at Hood College. May 25, 2010. Accepted at Economic Inquiry on November 2010.

Download in pdf


* "Do Vehicle Recalls Reduce the Number of Accidents? The Case of the U.S. Car Market."

With Yong-Kyun Bae at Hood College. Version of March 24, 2011. Pre-publication copy. Forthcoming in the Journal of Policy Analyis and Management.

Download in pdf


Book Chapters and Other Publications

* " Disability, Social Insurance, and Labor Force Attachment." (2009)

Chapter 9 in Ensayos en Economia, Discapacidad, y Empleo (Essays on Economics, Disabililty and Employment). Fundacion ONCE and ASEPELT. Delta Publicaciones. 2009.

Version: September 28, 2008. The paper is in English.

Download in pdf

To see the book

Link to the book


* "Annuitization Issues in Social Security Reform: Panel Discussion." Published in September 2002 in the Actuary, 1-8.

Download in pdf


* "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis." in Proceedings of the 2002 North American Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society: Labor Economics and Applied Econometrics, edited by David K. Levine, William Zame, Anne Case, Raquel Fernandez, John Rust, and Ken Wolpin.

Link to pdf file


* "Retirement Expectations Formation using the Health and Retirement Study." in Proceedings of the 2002 North American Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society: Urban Economics and Public Economics, edited by David K. Levine, William Zame, Roger Gordon, Therese McGuire, and John Rust.

Link to pdf file


Papers in the Revise and Resubmit stage in Refereed Journals

* "How Large are the Classification Errors in the Social Security Disability Award Process?"

Econometrica has requested a revision of this paper. 2005. A slightly earlier version is NBER Working Paper 10219.

With John Rust (Maryland), Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA)

Download in pdf

Read the featured article in the NBER Bullentin on Aging


* " Using a Life Cycle Model to Predict Induced Entry Effects of a $1 for $2 benefit offset in the SSDI Program."

Revision has been requested by JPAM (Journal of Policy Analysis and Management).

New Version: May 2011.

With John Rust (Maryland), and Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA).

Download in pdf


*"Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Decisions: An Empirical Analysis"

Updated version: February, 2006. Revision requested, Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Download in pdf


* "Job Search Behavior of Older Americans."

, with Huan Ni. Version of June 13 2010. Second Revision Requested by LABOUR.

Download in pdf


*"How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes? "

Manuscript with Selcuk Eren (Levy Institute), Frank Heiland (CUNY-Baruch College) and Sergi Jimenez-Martin (UPF). Version of October, 2011. Submitted to Economic Inquiry.

Download in pdf


Papers Submitted (waiting for 1st decision) to Refereed Journals


* "Retirement and Social Security Reform Expectations: A Solution to the New Retirement Puzzle."

With Deb Dwyer, Frank Heiland, and Warren C. Sanderson. This research is funded by MRRC, UM06-17.

Version of September 18, 2007. Rewrite and Resubmit stage at the Economic Journal

Download in pdf


* " Disability and Labor Force Attachment: A Policy Challenge."

Submitted to the Journal of Economic Studies.

Version: March 14, 2009.

Download in pdf

* The Effects of Employment Uncertainty and Wealth Shocks on the Labor Supply and Claiming Behavior of Older American Workers

Manuscript Submitted to the Journal of Labor Economics. Version of October 18, 2012. With Sergi Jimenez-Martin at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, J. Ignacio Garcia Perez at the Universidad Pablo de Olavide.

Download in pdf


Manuscripts in Preparation for Submission to Refereed Journals


* "The Annuity Puzzle Revisited."

This paper has also circulated with the title: A Dynamic Model of Labor Supply, Consumption/Savings, and Annuity Decisions under Uncertainty.

Version of June 2003.

Download in pdf


* "Recovery from and Onset of Mobility Limitations among Older Americans"

With Huan Ni.

Version of March 23, 2011.

Download in pdf


* " Health Status, Insurance, and Expenditures in the Transition from Work to Retirement."

Funded by the ERIU project at the University of Michigan

Version of June 24, 2005

With John Rust (Maryland), Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA), Ignez Tristao (Maryland), Emine Boz (Maryland), Sharbani Roy (NERA), and Joe Nichols (Board of the Fed.).

Download in pdf


* " Dynamic Models of Retirement and Disability."

We presented it at the NBER Summer Institute 2000, and at the Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society 2001 in New Orleans.

Version of September 2002.

With John Rust (Maryland), and Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA).

Download in pdf


* " A Comparison of Discrete and Parametric Approximation Methods for Continuous-State Dynamic Programming Problems in Economics."

It was presented at the CEF 2000 conference in Barcelona in July 2000. Also in Stanford and Georgia Tech in August 2000. Manuscript in preparation for submission as a book proposal to Princeton University Press. Editor in charge: Seth Ditchik.

Version of 2005. Preliminary. Please do not quote without the authors' permission.

With George Hall (Brandeis), Giorgio Pauletto (University of Geneva), Gunter Hitsch (Chicago GSB), and John Rust (Maryland) .

Download in pdf


*"Micro Determinants of Labor Force Status Among Older Americans."

This paper was presented in the North American Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society in Wisconsin in June 1999, the NBER Summer Institute in July of 1999, the Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society in Cancun in August of 1999, and the European Meetings of the Econometric Society and the European Economic Association in Santiago de Compostela in August/September of 1999. Version of September 30, 2000.

Download in pdf


Work in Progress

* A Cross-Country Comparison of the Effects of Social Security Policies on the Labor Supply and Claiming Behavior of Older Workers

Work in progress. With Sergi Jimenez-Martin at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, J. Ignacio Garcia Perez at the Universidad Pablo de Olavide.

Download abstract in pdf


*"Labor Supply, Investments in Housing, and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis using the HRS."

Work in Progress. You can download a proposal type discussion. Please do not cite.

Download proposal-type document in pdf


*"Is there a Decline in Consumption after Retirement, and if so, is it Consistent with the Predictions of the Life Cycle Model? "

Work in Progress with John Rust (University of Maryland) and Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA)


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Updated October 18, 2012